Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Predictions for next solar cycle

Here's an item from SolarNews you might be interested in:

"Submit your solar cycle 24 prediction, both serious and ‘fun’ Douglas Biesecker
27 Jul 2006

Request for solar cycle 24 predictions, both serious and ‘fun’
Please submit by September 9, 2006 to guarantee consideration.

The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel is issuing an invitation for you to submit your prediction for the strength and phase of Solar Cycle 24. There’s even a ‘fun’ component for you non-serious predictors.

As for the previous two solar cycles, the NOAA Space Environment Center is convening a scientific task force of international experts to examine differing forecast scenarios for the amplitude and phase of solar activity during Solar Cycle 24. This task force, with the aid of NASA support, is charged with determining a consensus forecast for the coming solar cycle. The consensus forecast will be published to provide guidance for a myriad of scientific, governmental, and industrial concerns. The panel expects to issue a preliminary prediction by the time of the 2007 Space Weather Week (April, 2007).

For those without a specific prediction model, we’d still like your prediction. The chair of the panel promises to do something fun with the predictions. Fun for a physicist, that is. There might be a prize in it, or at least some notoriety. The chair will just need a long memory.

E-mail predictions, no later than September 9, 2006 to
Douglas Biesecker

All predictions, both serious and fun, must include the following information:
Institution (if applicable):
Mailing Address:
Work Phone Number (include country code if outside USA):
Category of prediction (Fun, Precursor, Spectral, Climatology, Recent Climatology, or Neural Network, other (please specify)):

For those submitting a ‘fun’ prediction (one prediction per person)
Prediction for the peak, smoothed sunspot number for solar cycle 24
Prediction for the month and year of the peak, smoothed sunspot number
That’s it for you.

For those with model derived predictions
Submit a prediction for any of:
Peak sunspot number for solar cycle 24 (in units of sunspot number or F10.7 flux)
Time of maximum (absolute date or time (in months) after minimum)
Duration of cycle 24
Prediction for time of minimum between cycles 23 and 24

A maximum two page summary of your prediction technique.

Other things we would like to see, but not required:
A skill score from a prediction of prior cycles (show how computed)
Error bars on your prediction (show how derived)


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